President Trump’s Potential Impact on Labor & Employment Law

America has made it across the finish line for the 47th time: Donald Trump has been elected the country’s new president.

The 2024 presidential election is set to have far-reaching implications for both employers and employees in the United States.

For employers, a new president will directly impact labor laws and workplace regulations.

For employees, the stakes are equally high; workers will likely see changes in wage standards, benefits, and job security.

Here there are several areas related to labor and employment law where President-elect Trump may focus once he is sworn in, in January.

Governing Philosophy

While a president is responsible for implementing and enforcing laws passed by Congress, he also appoints a cabinet to head 15 federal agencies, which are responsible for the administration of federal laws. The president also appoints thousands of political appointees, most of whom do not require confirmation by any other branch of government. In short, the president has a lot of power to effect change.

On the employment front, the Trump 2024 agenda may look similar to the agenda he set while president from 2017 to 2021. He continues to express support for Right to Work Laws, which allow workers to opt out of paying union dues. As president, he also made it more difficult for federal employees to unionize and made business-friendly appointments in various agencies, including the Department of Labor and the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

Given his comments during the campaign is is likely that Trump will again make similar business-friendly appointments within federal agencies like the Department of Labor, the NLRB, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC).

For example, as President, Trump has the ability to fire the current NLRB General Counsel and appoint new members to the NLRB as their terms expire.

This could lead to a wholesale reversal of a number of NLRB rulings issued during the Biden administration. As the inauguration approaches, stay tuned for an upcoming article addressing what might be expected from a Trump administration NLRB.

Wage and Hour

Minimum Wage:
During a debate with President Biden in 2020, Trump signaled he was open to increasing the federal minimum wage to $15/hour, which has been stuck at $7.25 for 15 years, as long as it didn’t hurt small businesses.

However, during the 2024 campaign, he did not address whether he’d do so as president this time.

Tips:
While workers currently have to pay individual income taxes and payroll taxes on their tips, Trump has proposed eliminating federal income taxes on tips.

Overtime:
Trump’s Department of Labor promulgated a rule that extended overtime pay to about 1.3 million workers. Notably, the Trump administration’s rule covered fewer employees than a previous proposal made by President Obama.

Trump is again coming into office after an administration that has tried to expand overtime coverage. It is unclear whether he will again promulgate his own rule. During this year’s campaign, he called for making overtime wages tax-free.

Independent contractors:
Millions of U.S. workers are working in the gig economy by mixing short-term jobs, freelance assignments, and contract work.

The Trump administration’s Department of Labor sought to make it easier for businesses to classify gig workers as independent contractors, which would have made wage-and-hour compliance easier for employers.

Benefits

Paid family leave:
There is no federal law that provides for or guarantees access to paid family and medical leave for workers in the private sector. However, a number of states have enacted their own paid leave programs.

Trump has at times been supportive of such a program, and during his first administration he extended 12-week paid family leave to employees of federal agencies and contractors. It is not clear whether Trump would continue to promote family leave policies during his new administration.

During the campaign trail, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance suggested that a second Trump administration may loosen certification requirements to bolster the availability of childcare workers.

Health insurance:
Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in his first term as president but failed. This go-around, he has still called for the ACA to be repealed. His running mate had floated the idea of repealing the ACA mandate that covers people with pre-existing conditions and moving them into a separate pool.

Trump has also advocated for the government or private insurers to cover the costs for in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments.

Organized Labor

Unions:
As president, Trump signed three executive orders that restricted the labor rights of federal government employees who belonged to unions. He also signed Schedule F, which would have limited civil service job protections. He made appointments to the NLRB board that led to the overturning of speedy union election rules.

On the campaign trail, he has said that he would veto the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would prevent employers from interfering with union elections, allow the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to further penalize companies that violate labor laws, and protect striking workers by expediting their reinstatement to work.

Competition

Non-competes:
Trump has not addressed the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) attempt to ban non-compete agreements, which prevent workers from taking a job at a competing business or starting their own business.

However, Vance has broken with the Republican party and voiced support for FTC commissioner Lina Khan’s approach to addressing “big tech.”

Sectors to Watch

Clean and renewable energy:
Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law in 2022. While Trump has called for the law to be “immediately terminate[d],” he will need an act of Congress to do so. Trump has long been a skeptic of clean and renewable energies, including wind power, and instead has called for increased fossil fuel production. He has also said he would repeal regulations that support the manufacture of more electric and hybrid vehicles.

Chip manufacturing:
The Biden administration passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act in 2022. The law, which authorizes almost $300 billion in funding, aims to expand domestic production of semiconductors, provide new subsidies for onshore manufacturing, and boost investment in high-tech research. Trump has called the law “so bad” and argued against incentivization for “rich companies.” It is unclear whether he would try to repeal the law.

Onshoring:
Before the COVID pandemic hit U.S. shores, manufacturing under the Trump administration saw a net gain of 350,000 jobs, reversing a decades-long decline, largely due to globalization. On the campaign trail, Trump has called for the U.S. to become the “manufacturing superpower of the world” by incentivizing companies with expanded research and development, tax credits, and tariffs on products made outside of the country.

He also has called for “special zones” on federal lands designated for American companies, which would feature lower taxes and regulations.

Higher Education:
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to “eliminate the Department of Education” in favor of state regulation instead. While that is unlikely, we can expect there will be a retreat from the policy guidance promulgated under the Biden administration. For example, institutions of higher education may need to prepare for another revision to Title IX, including a possible return to more stringent requirements for due process for accused respondents, consistent with Title IX’s 2020 Final Rule from the first Trump administration.

In addition, the new Trump administration is unlikely to support any renewed efforts for student loan forgiveness programs, and we will see continued challenges to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and the income-based SAVE plan.

Lastly, DEI programs, post-Students for Fair Admissions, will most likely continue to be chipped away at or eliminated completely.

Synergy HR can help you draft a legally-compliant employee Speech policy. Contact us for more details.